Cotton acreage to fall, yield to rise

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its first estimates of the crop for the 2015-16 season beginning on October 1 at 380 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This is almost similar to the output of 382 lakh bales achieved in the 2014-15 season. The association says the acreage under cotton during the ensuing 2015-16 cotton season is going to be less than that of the current crop year. Yield is, however, likely to be higher during the 2015-16 crop season due to good and timely rainfall in the cotton growing area.

The production for the 2015-16 season therefore is expected to be similar to that of 2014-15 crop year. However, the association said, the yield may go up due to timely rainfall in the cotton growing areas and the crop for the next cotton season is expected to match previous year´s figures. The total cotton supply in the next season is estimated at 470.65 lakh bales while the domestic consumption is pegged at 325 lakh bales, leaving a surplus of 145.65 lakh bales for exports.

In 2015-16 season, the output in the northern region, including Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is expected to be up at 55.50 lakh bales against 53.50 lakh bales to be produced in the current season. Scanty rainfall in parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is likely to pull down output in the central zone to 203 lakh bales (204.50 last year), though output in Madhya Pradesh may go up to 19 lakh bales as against 18 lakh bales. Output in southern region, including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, may register a fall at 115.50 lakh bales (118.75 lakh bales). Mill consumption is estimated to be higher at 285 lakh bales (278 lakh bales) with demand from small scale units and non-mills also supporting the bullish trend in consumption. Global cotton output is estimated to decline by 9 per cent in crop year 2015-16 on diversion of acreage to other remunerative crops. CAI also released the July estimates for ongoing cotton season 2014-15, placing it at 382.75 lakh bales (of 170 kg each).

The total cotton crop stood at 407.25 lakh bales during 2013-14, according to CAI data. Earlier, CAI officials had said that Cotton Corporation of India (CCI ) may not be able to sell a sizeable quantity of cotton at the end of the season. The CCI has procured about 87 lakh bales to provide price support to the farmers. Unfortunately, the CCI has not been able to sell the entire quantity of cotton procured by it.