CAI reduces its cotton crop estimate for 2022-23 season

The estimation has been reduced by 9 lakh bales to 321.50 lakh bales

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its January estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2022-23 beginning from October 1, 2022.  The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2022-23 seasons to 321.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 341.59 lakh running bales of 160 kg each). 

The total cotton supply for the months of October 2022 to January 2023 is estimated at 153.39 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 162.98 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), which consists of the arrivals of 115.70 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 122.93 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), imports of 5.80 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 6.16 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2022 to January 2023 at 92.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 98.28 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) while the export shipments up to 31^st January 2023 are estimated by the CAI at 4.00 lakh bales (equivalent to 4.25 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).  Stock at the end of January 2023 estimated at 56.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 60.45 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) including 40 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) with textile mills and the remaining 16.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 17.95 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc) including cotton sold but not delivered).

The cotton supply estimated by the CAI till end of the cotton season 2022-23 i.e. up to 30^th September 2023 is 365.39 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 388.23 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).  The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1^st October 2022, crop for the season estimated at 321.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 341.59 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) and the imports for the season estimated by the CAI at the same level i.e. at 12 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kg each). The import estimated by the CAI for the corresponding year 2021-22 was at 14 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).

The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 300 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 318.75 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) i.e. at the same level estimated earlier.  The exports for the season have been estimated at 30.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 31.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) i.e. at the same level as estimated previously.  The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2021-22 was 43 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).  The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 44.39 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 47.16 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) is now estimated at 35.39 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 37.60 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).

Highlights of deliberations held by the CAI Crop Committee

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on February 13, 2023, which was attended by 27 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country.  The Committee arrived at its January estimate of the cotton crop for 2022-23 season and drew the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting: –

1. Consumption

The CAI has retained its cotton consumption estimate at 300.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 318.75 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).  The previous year’s consumption estimate was 318 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 337.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).

Up to January 31, 2023, the consumption is estimated at 92.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 98.28 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).

2. Production

The CAI has reduced its production estimate for 2022-23 season by 9 lakh bales to 321.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 341.59 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).  The CAI has reduced its cotton crop in Maharashtra by 2.50 lakh bales, Madhya Pradesh by 1 lakh bales, Telangana by 3 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh by 1.50 lakh bales and Karnataka by 1.00 lakh bales.

The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI report.

3. Imports

The estimate of cotton imports into India is maintained at 12 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) which is less by 2 lakh bales than the import estimate of 14 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) for the previous crop year 2021-22.

Up to January 31, 2023, about 5.80 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 6.16 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.

4. Exports

The Committee has maintained its cotton exports estimate at 30 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 31.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) which is less by 13 lakh bales than the exports estimate of 43.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) for the crop year 2021-22. 

Up to January, 31 2023, about 4 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 4.25 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) are estimated to have been shipped.

5. Arrivals

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2022 to January 2023 are estimated at 115.70 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 122.93 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).