Cotton consumption and import estimates rise as exports are revised lower.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased its cotton pressing estimate for the 2025-26 season by 3 lakh bales to 337 lakh bales of 170 kg each, with a variation of plus or minus 3 per cent.
The revised estimate is equivalent to 353.64 lakh running bales of 162 kg each, compared with the earlier projection of 334 lakh bales of 170 kg each.
The estimate was finalised at a CAI Crop Committee meeting held on 27 July 2026. The meeting included 24 representatives from cotton-producing regions and considered inputs from 11 state cotton associations and trade sources.
CAI also increased its domestic cotton consumption estimate for the season by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales of 170 kg each, based on data from the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry. This is 29 lakh bales higher than the previous season’s estimated consumption of 319 lakh bales.
Cotton consumption up to 30 June 2026 was estimated at 261 lakh bales.
The association raised its cotton import estimate by 13 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales for the 2025-26 season, compared with the previous estimate of 47 lakh bales. Imports are expected to be 19 lakh bales higher than the previous season.
Around 51 lakh bales were estimated to have arrived at Indian ports by the end of June 2026.
Meanwhile, CAI reduced its cotton export estimate by 3 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales from the earlier projection of 18 lakh bales. Around 11.25 lakh bales were estimated to have been exported up to 30 June 2026.
India’s total cotton supply for the season is estimated at 452.59 lakh bales, comprising an opening stock of 55.59 lakh bales, cotton pressing of 337 lakh bales and imports of 60 lakh bales.
The total available surplus is projected at 104.59 lakh bales after accounting for domestic demand of 348 lakh bales. This compares with a surplus of 73.59 lakh bales in the previous season.
CAI has also raised its closing stock estimate for 30 September 2026 by 4 lakh bales to 89.59 lakh bales. The figure is 34 lakh bales higher than the closing stock recorded at the end of the previous season.
Closing stock as of 30 June 2026 was estimated at 162.72 lakh bales, including 94.50 lakh bales held by textile mills and 68.22 lakh bales held by the Cotton Corporation of India, Maharashtra Federation, multinational companies, ginners and traders.