India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable outlook for cotton textiles for FY18. However, the agency has revised its cotton outlook to stable for FY18 from negative for FY17. In addition, the agency has revised its outlook for synthetic textiles to stable for FY18 from negative for FY17. The stable textile outlook is in view of stable input prices, healthy capacity utilisation and steady domestic demand scenario in FY18 and support emanating through fiscal incentives and implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) that will improve the textile industry’s export competitiveness. Moreover, the US’s exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership is likely to realign textile trade and investments towards the Indian subcontinent that were diverted to Vietnam over FY16-FY17.
The stable cotton outlook is in view of an increase in acreage, a rise in supply in 1QFY18 (due to demonetisation) and a decline in global inventory assisting with a balanced supply. Ind-Ra expects operating profitability levels of Indian cotton ginners and exporters to moderate in FY18. Liquidity position of small players was acutely affected due to a surge in cotton prices in 1HFY17, followed by a challenging operating environment in 2HFY17 due to demonetisation.
Ind-Ra expects cotton acreage to increase 10-15 per cent to nearly 120 million hectares in FY18, leading to increased production. Ind-Ra projects a domestic stock-to-use ratio of nearly 13 per cent for cotton marketing year (MY) 17-18 (MY16-17: 15.3 per cent, MY15-16: 13.8 per cent). The expectation is in view of continued auction of Chinese reserves and global cotton processing countries (excluding China) holding about six months of inventory.