CAI further lowers its cotton crop estimate for 2022-23 season

The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its April estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2022-23 beginning from October 1, 2022.  The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2022-23 season to 298.35 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 313.08 lakh running bales of 162 kg each). This estimate has been arrived at by the Crop Committee (total 25 members attached) of the Association based on pressing numbers received from its 11 cotton growing state association members. The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.

The total cotton supply for the months of October 2022 to April 2023 is estimated at 263.06 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 276.05 lakh running bales of 162 kg each), which consists of the arrivals of 224.17 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 235.24 lakh running bales of 162 kg each), imports of 7.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 7.35 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 33.46 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2022 to April 2023 at 179 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 187.84 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) while the export shipments upto April 30, 2023 are estimated by the CAI at 12.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 12.59 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).  Stock at the end of April 2023 is estimated at 72.06 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 75.62 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) including 52.06 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 54.63 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) with textile mills and the remaining 20 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 20.99 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.) including cotton sold but not delivered.

The cotton supply estimated by the CAI till end of the cotton season 2022-23 i.e. upto September 30, 2023 is 345.24 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 362.29 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).  The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 33.46 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2022, crop (based on pressing figures) for the seasonestimated at 298.35 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 313.08 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) and the imports for the season estimated by the CAI at 15 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 15.74 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) i.e. at the same level as estimated previously. The import estimated by the CAI for the corresponding year 2021-22 was at 14 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.69 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).

The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 311 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 326.36 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) i.e. at the same level estimated previously. The exports for the season have been estimated at 20.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 20.99 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) which are 5 lakh bales lower than estimated previously.

The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2021-22 was 43 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 45.12 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).  The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 13.89 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.58 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) is now estimated at 14.24 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.94 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).

HIghlights of deliberations held by The Cai Crop Committee on May 10 2023

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting, the May 10, 2023, which was attended by 24 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country.  The Committee arrived at its April estimate of the cotton crop for 2022-23 season and drew the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting: –

1. Consumption

The CAI has estimated its cotton consumption at 311.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 326.36 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).  The previous year’s consumption estimate was 318 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 333.70 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).

Upto April 30, 2023, the consumption is estimated at 179 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 187.84 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).

2. Production

The CAI has reduced its production estimate for 2022-23 season by 4.65 lakh bales of 170 kg each to 298.35 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 313.08 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).  The CAI has reduced its cotton crop in Maharashtra by 2.00 lakh bales, Telangana by 2 lakh bales, Tamil Nadu by 0.50 lakh bales and Orissa by 0.15 lakh bales.  

The CAI Crop Committee has estimated crop figures based on the cotton pressing numbers and arrivals relating to various states based on the input received in Crop Committee meeting from the members of the following Associations: –

Sr. No.	State	Members / Associations
1	Punjab	Indian Cotton Association (ICAL)
2	Haryana	Indian Cotton Association (ICAL)
3	Rajasthan	Indian Cotton Association (ICAL)
4	Gujarat	GUJCOT Trade Association
5	Maharashtra	Indian Commodities.Com Maharashtra Cotton Ginners Association
6	Madhya Pradesh	Madhyanchal Cotton Ginners & Traders Association
7	Telangana	Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association
8	Andhra Pradesh	AP Brokers and Ginners
9	Karnataka	Karnataka Cotton Association
10	Tamil Nadu	Tamil Nadu Cotton Association
11	Orissa	Odissa Cotton Association

The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton pressing numbers and arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI report.

• Imports

The estimate of cotton imports into India is estimated at 15 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 15.74 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) which is more by 1 lakh bales than the import estimate of 14 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.69 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) for the previous crop year 2021-22.

Upto April 30, 2023, about 7.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 7.35 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.

4. Exports

The Committee has reduced its cotton exports estimate to 20 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 20.99 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) which is less by 23 lakh bales of 170 kg each than the exports estimate of 43.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 45.12 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) for the crop year 2021-22. 

Upto April 30, 2023, about 12.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 12.59 lakh running bales of 162 kg each) are estimated to have been shipped.

5. Arrivals

Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2022 to April 2023 are estimated at 224.17 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 235.24 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).

6. Closing stock as on September 30, 2023

Closing stock as on 30^th September 2023 is estimated by the Committee at 14.24 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 14.94 lakh running bales of 162 kg each).

As decided by the Crop Committee, size of running bales has been changed from 160 kg each to 162 kg each for the purpose of reporting.