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CAI lowers cotton estimate for 2020-21 to 354.5 L bales

Aug 16, 2021
CAI lowers cotton estimate for 2020-21 to 354.5 L bales

Mumbai

 

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced its July estimate of the cotton crop for 2020-21 (beginning from October 1, 2020) by 1.50 lakh bales to 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 376.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) from its previous estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). This was announced after a virtual meeting of the Statistics Committee of the CAI which was held on August 11, 2021 and was attended by 25 members including upcountry cotton trade associations representing all cotton growing states.

 

The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 65.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 69.59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone has been reduced by 0.50 lakh bales to 193.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 205.59 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) from 194 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 206.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) estimated during the last month.

 

There is a reduction of 2.50 lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat state while the crop estimates of Maharashtra & Madhya Pradesh have been increased by 1.50 lakh bales and 0.50 lakh bales respectively compared to the estimates of these states made in the previous month. 

 

The cotton crop estimate for Southern Zone has been reduced by one lakh bales to 90.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (i.e. 96.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) compared to the previous estimate of 91.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (i.e. 97.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) made during the last month. The cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 1.00 lakh bales whereas the cotton crop estimates for the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka & Tamil Nadu have been maintained at the same levels as estimated previously. Also, there is no change in the cotton crop estimate for Orissa.

 

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2020 to July 2021 is 482.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 512.77 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). This consists of the arrivals of 348.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each upto July 31, 2021 (equivalent to 370.40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each), imports of 9.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 9.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) upto July 31, 2021 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2020 at 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).

 

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2020 to July 2021 at 275 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 292.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) while the export shipment of cotton upto July 31, 2021 is estimated at 70 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 74.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).

 

Stock at the end of July 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 137.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 146.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) including 80.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (i.e. 85 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) with textile mills and remaining 57.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 61.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) with CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc).

 

The yearly balance sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto September 30, 2021 at 489.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 520.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) consisting of the Opening Stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (i.e. 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 376.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) and imports estimated by the CAI at 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each), which are lower by 5.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 5.84 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) from the previous year’s import estimated at 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).

 

Domestic consumption for the entire crop year i.e. upto September 30, 2021 is now estimated higher by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused by lockdown to arrest spread of the second wave of COVID-19.

 

The CAI has also increased the exports estimate for the season from its previous estimate of 72 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 76.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) to 77 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 81.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) based on the feedback received from exporter members.

 

This export estimate is higher by 27 lakh bales from the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The carryover stock at the end of the season i.e. on September 30, 2021 is now estimated at 82.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 87.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).

                                                                  

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on 11th August 2021, which was attended by in all 25 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders. The Committee arrived at the July estimate of the cotton crop for the 2020-21 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.

 

The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at the meeting of the Statistics Committee of Cotton Association of India on August 11, 2021:

 

1. Consumption: The CAI has increased its consumption estimate for the current crop year by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) from its previous estimate of 325 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 345.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The Committee has made this revision considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused on account of the lockdown implemented to arrest the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the country. The consumption now estimated for the current crop year is higher by 80 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 265.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). Upto July 31, 2021, the consumption is estimated at 275 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 292.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).

 

2. Production: The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2020-21 to 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 376.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) from its previous estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) made during the last month. The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the months of August and September and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.

 

3. Imports: The estimate of cotton imports into India has been retained at the same level of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) as estimated during the last month. The cotton import estimate made now is lower by 5.50 lakh bales from that estimated for the 2019-20 crop year. Upto July 31, 2021, about 9.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 9.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) are estimated to have been arrived the Indian Ports.

 

4. Exports: The estimate of cotton exports for the 2020-21 crop year has been increased by 5 lakh bales to 77 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 81.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) based on the input received from exporter-members. Upto July 31, 2021, about 70 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 74.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) are estimated to have been shipped.

 

5. Arrivals: Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2020 to July 2021 are estimated at 348.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 370.40 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).

 

6. Stock as on July 31, 2021: The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on July 31, 2021 are estimated at 80 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 85 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each). The mills have on an average 87 days’ cotton stock in their godowns. The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 57.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 61.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each) as on July 31, 2021. Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on July 31, 2021 is estimated at 137.61 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 146.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).


Closing stock September 30, 2021

Closing stock as on September 30, 2021 is estimated by the Committee at 82.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 87.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each).