World cotton imports may recover

In the 2015-16 season, world cotton imports may recover modestly, increasing 2 per cent to 7.7 mts with imports outside of China rising by 3 per cent to 6.1 mts. In 2011-12, Chinese imports more than doubled from the previous season to 5.3 mts and surpassed the total volume of imports by the rest of world, which reached only 4.4 mts. ´However, in the following seasons, Chinese imports declined while imports outside of China have grown steadily,´ says International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

´In 2014-15, imports outside of China are likely to increase 6 per cent to 5.9 mt, but will not offset the 45 per cent decline in Chinese imports to 1.6 mt,´ ICAC said. As a result, ICAC has projected world imports to be down 12 per cent to 7.5 mt in the 2014-15 season. Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to be the three largest importers outside of China in 2015-16 due to the continued growth in their spinning sectors that rely primarily on imported cotton. Bangladesh´s imports are forecast at just under 1 mt in 2014-15 and are expected to remain stable in 2015-16. Vietnam´s imports are projected to rise 6 per cent to 927,000 tonne in 2015-16 and Indonesia´s imports to increase 4 per cent to nearly 800,000 tonne. US exports which experienced good demand for much of 2014-15 are expected to remain stable in 2015-16 at 2.3 mt.

On the other hand, India´s exports are projected down 50 per cent in 2014-15 to 1 mt, but could recover partially in 2015-16 to 1.2 mt. World cotton area is forecast down 7 per cent to 31.3 million hectares in 2015-16 due to low prices in 2014-15 and as a result, world cotton production is projected to be down 9 per cent to 23.9 mt. The announcement of a lower subsidy for 2015 in China is expected to lead to a 12 per cent decrease in area to 3.8 million hectares.